Energy, Emission, and Economic Impact Modeling

Understanding the Impacts of Policy and Energy Use

SAIC uses modeling as a valuable computational tool to assess the impacts of proposed and existing climate policy on emissions, the economy, and energy use. This helps organizations assess complex policy requirements and choices about energy use and alternative energy technology.

By employing the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) to understand the impacts of greenhouse gas (GHG) related legislation, SAIC uses the same tool that Congress and other federal agencies use to analyze proposed legislation and policies. SAIC has also developed easy-to-use, comprehensive tools to conduct side-by-side comparisons of different studies of proposed federal climate change legislation. This helps customers understand the underlying assumptions behind different estimates of costs and technology deployment.

Applying Modeling to Specific Energy Markets and Technologies

SAIC applies its extensive NEMS modeling experience to generate comprehensive, user-friendly forecasts for energy markets, technology infrastructure, and national/regional economic performance-based on customer-provided assumptions about future energy technology, availability, cost, and performance. The results are invaluable for customers striving to develop and deploy new technologies and assess how current technologies may be impacted by new policies and technology commercialization. It is also crucial for any organization trying to strategically plan for energy and infrastructure impacts from climate change-related policy.

Forecasting Carbon Allowance Prices

SAIC forecasts carbon allowance prices throughout the world, including under proposed and operational carbon trading schemes. SAIC uses NEMS for domestic projections and international carbon allowance price forecasting through its proprietary World Emissions and Energy Modeling System (WEEMS).

WEEMS can quickly perform what-if scenarios using a variety of assumptions including crude oil price, coal to gas spread, growth rates, carbon dioxide allowance levels, and availability of project-based mechanisms such as Joint Implementation (JI) and the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM).

SAIC’s allowance price forecasting is extremely valuable for customers trying to understand the opportunities and challenges presented by carbon trading, as well as those already operating under the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS).