Energy, Emission, and Economic Impact Modeling

Understanding the Impacts of Policy and Energy Use on Your Organization

SAIC uses modeling as a valuable computational tool to assess the impacts of proposed and existing climate policy on emissions, the economy, and energy use. This helps organizations assess complex policy requirements and choices about energy use and alternative energy technology.

Our services help clients develop an in-depth understanding of modeling findings, either as a result of their own modeling studies or the work of others, and how they apply to their specific needs.

Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change Legislation

SAIC uses the U.S. Energy Information Administration's National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) to assess the impacts of federal climate change legislation on select industries and sectors, using a range of different technology, fuel, and economic assumptions.

By employing NEMS to understand the impacts of GHG legislation, SAIC uses the same tool that Congress and other federal agencies use to analyze proposed legislation and policies. SAIC has also developed easy-to-use, comprehensive tools to conduct side-by-side comparisons of different studies of proposed federal climate change legislation. This helps clients understand the underlying assumptions behind different estimates of costs and technology deployment.

Applying Modeling to Specific Energy Markets and Technologies

SAIC applies its extensive NEMS modeling experience to generate comprehensive, user-friendly forecasts for energy markets, technology infrastructure, and national/regional economic performance based on client-provided assumptions about future energy technology availability, cost, and performance. The results are invaluable for clients striving to develop and deploy new technologies and assess how current technologies may be impacted by new policies and technology commercialization. It is also crucial for any organization trying to strategically plan for energy and infrastructure impacts from climate change-related policy.

Modeling to Forecast Carbon Allowance Prices

SAIC forecasts carbon allowance prices throughout the world, including under proposed and operational carbon trading schemes. SAIC uses NEMS for domestic projections and international carbon allowance price forecasting through its proprietary World Emissions and Energy Modeling System (WEEMS).

WEEMS can quickly perform 'what-if' scenarios using a variety of assumptions including crude oil price, coal to gas spread, growth rates, CO² allowance levels, and availability of project-based mechanisms such as Joint Implementation and the Clean Development Mechanism.

SAIC's allowance price forecasting is extremely valuable for clients trying to understand the opportunities and challenges presented by carbon trading as well as those already operating under the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme.

Case Studies

Analysis of Federal Cap and Trade Bills

The Natural Gas Council comprises the four primary U.S. natural gas industry trade associations and represents the three primary segments of the U.S. natural gas industry. SAIC modeled the impacts of two prominent federal climate change cap and trade bills [McCain-Lieberman Bill (S. 280) and the Lieberman-Warner Bill (S. 3036)] using assumptions provided by the council.

Market Projection Evaluation for Carbon Capture Technology

For a leading company in power generation technology, SAIC used NEMS to conduct a market projection evaluation of an advanced energy conversion and carbon capture technology. The technology combines gasification with oxygen-fed turbines to yield a pure CO² effluent that may be sequestered.

European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) Carbon Allowance Price Model

In partnership with a U.K-based consulting and engineering firm, SAIC developed a greenhouse gas emissions strategy for a Greek refinery. SAIC deployed WEEMS to develop annual carbon allowance price scenarios for years 2005 through 2015. The allowance pricing forecasts helped the client develop a European Union ETS compliance strategy, including a strategy for buying and selling allowances.

Developing a National Energy Model for the Government of Canada

On behalf of Natural Resources Canada, SAIC was the prime contractor who developed the Canadian energy model called MAPLE-C based on the U.S. NEMS model. We were responsible for model development for all of the MAPLE-C demand, supply, and conversion modules. Canada is using the model to evaluate ways to meet its obligations for carbon mitigation under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and its Kyoto Protocol. The model also supports Canada's official energy outlook.