Cash for Kilotons

Fall 2005

The Cold War ended with the demise of the Soviet Union and the ratification of several arms control treaties that reduced or eliminated thousands of strategic (long-range) nuclear weapons. Yet "tactical" nuclear weapons were never addressed.

Today, the potential for the proliferation of tactical nuclear weapons and the danger represented by the rise of al Qaeda and Islamic fundamentalism means that scenarios of nuclear terror in the U.S. have become imaginable.

In their SAIC Executive Science & Technology Council (ESTC) Award-winning paper, "Dealing with Russian Tactical Nuclear Weapons: Cash for Kilotons," Timothy Miller and Jeffrey Larsen suggest a bold way to address this concern and eliminate many tactical nuclear weapons: the West should simply buy them. They suggest their idea could quickly reduce a serious threat by offering a "carrot" of badly needed capital for Russia's economy to deal with this issue.

A novel solution

To address concerns associated with this approach, Timothy Miller and Jeffrey Larsen propose a novel solution. First, Russia would inventory all of its weapons. With that list in hand, a consortium made up of the United States and its NATO allies would offer to buy all the weapons Russia no longer believed it needed. To alleviate apprehension, Miller and Larsen suggest that a neutral third party - the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) - accept custody of purchased weapons, and store and secure the resulting fissile material until it is either blended into fuel or is properly disposed. By using the IAEA to broker the arrangement between the parties, Russia would gain added confidence these weapons would not end up in the hands of a former adversary.

In addition, the authors suggest a new organization, supervised by an executive committee, be set up to administer financial dealings - setting the price for weapons, regulating fuel conversion, and arbitrating disputes. The logical choice to take on this responsibility, according to Miller and Larsen, would be the NATO-Russia Council. This Western consortium would put up the necessary cash to make this system operate and negotiate a fair price for excess Russian nuclear weapons on a per-kiloton-of-warhead yield basis.

Once the weapons are purchased, they would be dismantled by their Russian owners, who could remove the critical components, such as fissile materials and triggers. The fissile materials would then be demilitarized by an agreed process and secured by the IAEA until rendered into fuel or disposed safely. After the fissile material was blended down into fuel, it would be credited back to the consortium members and used for power generation needs or resold on the open worldwide market to qualified nuclear-power operators.

Miller and Larsen suggest that market sessions could be open for entire groups of weapons, or selected groups, depending upon what the parties wish to do. However, once a deal is made and the weapons are transferred to the IAEA, the market would be closed. Such a market mechanism is necessary to compel the parties to negotiate quickly in order to move this process forward.

The time is right

In the past, Russia would have scoffed at the idea of selling weapons to a former enemy, according to Miller and Larsen. However, Russia would be selling weapons that it had determined were no longer necessary. Furthermore, those weapons could represent a proliferation problem and a national security risk to Russia if not properly protected and maintained. This approach would share the burden of securing these weapons with NATO and permit Russia to focus its limited resources on securing a smaller portion of its stockpile.

Although buying tactical nuclear weapons may cost several billion dollars, it may be a lot cheaper than having to defend against, or clean up after one or two of them that fall into the hands of terrorists.

The article by SAIC's Miller and Larsen was runner up for the Captain Hugh G. Nott award for most outstanding paper in the Naval War College Review in 2004.

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