Developing a Long-term Power Plan for American Municipal Power

SAIC developed a long-term power plan for American Municipal Power’s 128 members whose electricity service territories are located in Ohio and five neighboring states.


Overview

American Municipal Power (AMP) provides a wide range of services on a cooperative, non-profit basis. The organization decided to enhance the strategic position of its members by expanding its generation portfolio to include a diverse mix of self-owned generation and tapped SAIC to develop a power plan for each of its members.

SAIC built an optimum generation portfolio for each member by using the Stochastic Econometric Regional Forecasting (SERF) model, which generates stochastic projections of fuel and power prices, utility loads, and corresponding power costs for multiple portfolios of power supply resources. This approach allows SAIC to identify power supply portfolios that would result in lowest cost and risk to each member over 20 years.

The studies’ analyses demonstrate how a member can use the new generation resources when they come online. SAIC tailored each of the 128 reports around four sets of results:

  • Load forecasts year-by-year, to 2025, for both peak demand and total energy. An optimum supply portfolio based on the expected results of load growth, market conditions, and available supply options
  • Power supply costs of the optimum portfolio based on the expected results
  • Forecasts in terms of the statistical mean and the two extremes, specifically the forecasted load at the 5 percent and 95 percent level
  • Resource selection table that differentiates the requirements of decision making over time

SAIC also serves as the consulting engineer for several of AMP’s large generation expansion projects.

Project Details

  • Location: Nationwide Google Earth
  • Status: Ongoing
  • Project Details:
    • 20-year power plan
    • 128 members in 6 states

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