Probabilistic Risk Assessment
Probabilistic risk assessments (PRA), developed as part of system risk and reliability modeling activities, enable management to assess the impact of a decision alternative on the overall technical and program objectives.
To properly support key design and operational decisions, design and operational alternatives must be analyzed not only with respect to their impact on a project's technical and programmatic objectives, but also with respect to their impact on high-level risk objectives. Our PRA analysts and engineers analyze product or system risk characteristics through the entire life cycle, from concept phase through system operations.
The key to achieving these goals is the proper application of database development, probabilistic analysis, and engineering knowledge. SAIC accomplishes this through the implementation of field-proven, scenario-based risk model development techniques that capture and delineate the failure response of a particular system.
We use fully tested and proven PRA tools and techniques along with extensive libraries of historical operations and failure data to quantitatively derive the probability of occurrence of highly undesirable events or accidents.
Our capabilities include:
- Requirements development
- Design analysis
- Fault tree analysis
- Verification and validation
PRA Benefits
Our PRA analysts and engineers analyze product or system risk characteristics with tested and proven PRA tools and techniques and a wealth of background information, thus achieving
- Determination of quantitative risk goals requirements
- Process, or system design analysis for risk contribution
- System risk modeling and simulation to determine weak links which may drive operational risk and cost
- Critical risk identification and control
Risk Assessment Tools
| Tool | Description |
|---|---|
| RAPTOR (ARINC, Inc.) | System reliability and availability modeling using reliability block diagrams and Monte Carlo simulation |
| RELEX (Relex Scandinavia AB) | System reliability modeling using reliability block diagrams and/or fault trees linked to database component and assembly failure rates. Several failure rate prediction methods available. Also has failure mode and effects analysis feature |
| SAPHIRE (Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations) | Probabilistic Risk Assessment Software Tool. Links event trees and fault trees to determine end-event probabilities |
| TIBCO® MINER | Data mining and trending tool to operate on data bases and perform statistical analyses |
| SAIC CAFTA | Fault tree analysis software tool. Does quantitative analysis to project top event probability of occurrence |
| DRAT | An SAIC-developed Design Rapid Assessment Tool. Excel®-based tool for evaluating relative risks of alternative design approaches in early system concept phases |
| SAIC EC Tree | Excel-based event tree generator with end-state calculations and statistics |
Why SAIC?
SAIC is an industry leader in the development and application of PRA techniques to identify, rank, and mitigate reliability and safety issues within NASA's human space flight program as well as robotic exploration missions. This legacy has allowed SAIC to extend the application of PRA into numerous other industries, including the energy and petrochemical areas.
SAIC analysts and engineers can provide PRA assessments to support any size project or program.
Excel is a registered trademark of Microsoft Corporation in the U.S. and/or other countries. TIBCO is a registered trademark of TIBCO Software, Inc. in the U.S. and/or other countries.